(19 October 2021) Through June-September of 2021, consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, which was the highest monthly growth rate in the last 12 years. Not all consumer goods were affected by price increases equally. For example, used car and gasoline prices were up 40% year-over-year in July, while consumer coffee prices have only increased by 1% year-over-year.

However, the latest commodity market data indicates that millions of Americans will likely be paying more for "the favorite beverage of the civilized world".

  • The price for New York traded Arabica beans increased to an average $2.03 per pound in August 2021 — a 66% increase since the end of 2020.
  • Coffee futures prices have risen on expected coffee crop loss in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee. According to USDA estimates, the severe droughts could reduce the 2020-2021 Brazilian Arabica coffee harvest by 30% compared to the previous market year, and by 23% compared to the 2017-2021 average. Rising sea fright prices also contribute to an increase in coffee costs. 
  • Brazil accounts for 40% of Arabica coffee beans production and 27% of global coffee beans exports. Thirty percent of coffee beans imported by the U.S. are supplied from Brazil.

Note: Arabica, Coffea arabica, is the world's most popular and widely produced species of coffee, as well as the type most commonly imported into the US. Arabica is grown at higher altitudes and tends to have a sweeter and more nuanced taste. Robusta, Coffea canephora, the other widely-produced species of coffee, has a stronger and harsher taste. It contains twice as much caffeine as arabica, is generally considered to be of inferior quality, and is typically less expensive.

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